Expanded Implementation of Solar Photovoltaics: Forecasting and Risk Assessment

Authors

  • Bura Ahmetzhanov Karaganda State Technical University
  • Kashamida Tazhibekova Karaganda State Technical University
  • Aigerim Shametova Karaganda State Technical University
  • Abay Urazbekov Karaganda State Technical University

Abstract

This research is a forecast of solar photovoltaics (PV) implementation made for a period through to 2030. The leading factors of PV development that were included into the forecast model are the price for PV modules, the efficiency of silicon solar panels, the price of lithium-ion batteries, the price of lithium and the silicon PV module manufacture. The model is based on the calculations made for the coefficients of correlation between the installed capacity and economic factors. The ARIMA forecasting method was applied to generate forecasts for each factor and installed capacity riding on specific factor's back. The calculated coefficients show a strong correlation between the installed capacity and the above listed factors. According to the generated forecasts, the efficiency factor will reach an abstract limit of 30% by 2030. Investments in photovoltaics will increase up to 70%; this is 10% higher than current level.Keywords: Photovoltaics (PV), Forecasting, Risk Assessment of PV Implementation, PV power, Correlation CoefficientsJEL Classifications: A11; B41; C01

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Kashamida Tazhibekova, Karaganda State Technical University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer of Department "Economics and Enterprise Management"

Downloads

Published

2018-09-05

How to Cite

Ahmetzhanov, B., Tazhibekova, K., Shametova, A., & Urazbekov, A. (2018). Expanded Implementation of Solar Photovoltaics: Forecasting and Risk Assessment. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 113–118. Retrieved from https://mail.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6766

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 5 (2018)

Section

Articles

License

Submission of an article implies that the work described has not been published previously , that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, that its publication is approved by all authors and tacitly or explicitly by the responsible authorities where the work was carried out, and that, if accepted, will not be published elsewhere in the same form, without the written consent of the Publisher. The Editors reserve the right to edit or otherwise alter all contributions, but authors will receive proofs for approval before publication.