The Nexus between Oil Consumption, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions in Morocco

Abstract

The intricate nexus between energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental degradation, particularly in the form of CO₂ emissions, has garnered substantial academic attention due to its critical policy implications for sustainable development. This study examines the short- and long-run relationships between CO2 emissions, GDP growth, oil consumption, and population growth in Morocco, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Using time-series data from 1990 to 2022, the analysis reveals that GDP growth and oil consumption significantly drive CO2 emissions in the long run, reflecting the environmental costs of economic expansion and fossil fuel dependence. However, population growth shows a negative relationship with emissions, suggesting possible gains from energy efficiency and urbanization. In the short run, GDP exhibits mixed lagged effects on emissions, while the error correction term indicates rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. These findings align with global literature on energy-economy-environment linkages and highlight the need for Morocco to prioritize renewable energy adoption and sustainable urban planning.